Offseason Mailbag (Part 2)
Offseason Mailbag (Part 2)
Answering more of your questions!
This week, I’ll be answering the remaining questions that readers sent in (see Part 1 here). Thanks again for all the submissions.
Let’s get right to it.
Will the Panthers repeat?
Probably not—and my view has little to do with luck, parity or Brandon Montour’s departure in free agency. Florida’s hellacious forecheck lightens the burden on its D-men, so I wouldn’t be surprised if someone like Adam Boqvist steps in and offers serviceable minutes in that spot.
The bigger concern is team-wide urgency. Back-to-back Stanley Cup Final appearances are bound to exact a toll. For a team that walks a fine line between aggressiveness and recklessness at the point of attack, that could spell trouble.
I don’t think anyone doubts the Panthers’ upside. I do, however, doubt their ability to stay locked in after winning it all.
Can Trevor Zegras bounce back?
Lost in the talk of his disappointing 2023-24 (15 points in 31 games) is the fact that his five-man unit averaged the most high-danger chances and expected goals of his career:
Anaheim simply couldn’t finish during his shifts (career-low 7.73 OISH%). I’d wager that will normalize to some extent this season. Although he is indeed guilty of style-over-substance habits at times, he’s also a gifted playmaker who sets up teammates at a good clip.
With Troy Terry doing his thing, Cutter Gauthier joining the ranks, Mason McTavish and Leo Carlsson gaining valuable experience, and some young puck-movers on the blue line, Zegras has decent talent around him.
55 points is a reasonable estimate. If one of the Ducks’ young centers explodes, then maybe ~70 points.
Do you follow any other sports?
Do you play any sports?
In addition to hockey, I follow boxing, MMA and the NFL (casually).
As far as playing sports, I box for fun. Usually six days a week. I’m an avid walker too if that counts, although that’s more about fresh air than physical benefits.
Brock Faber or Jake Sanderson?
This debate has popped up a couple of times in the offseason. It’s an interesting one. They’re similar in theory (U23, mobile, two-way D-men), but their games play out differently.
Faber is more assertive, instinctual and he displayed surprising confidence in the OZ as a rookie, whereas Sanderson is longer, smoother and has purer matchup potential. Oddly enough, both guys are also entering their first full season under their current head coach (John Hynes and Travis Green, respectively). How that affects their trajectory is tough to say.
From my POV, Sanderson has the higher ceiling thanks to his long speed and range (he looks 6’4” out there). Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if his offense takes off in the next couple of seasons either (45+ points). Of course, reaching that ceiling—in Ottawa, no less—is hardly a guarantee.
Right now? Give me Faber. Long-term? I…don’t know.
Two of my favorite young D-men, though. If I’m running Team USA, they would comprise my third pairing behind Slavin-Fox and Hughes-McAvoy.
How many goals for Ovie?
Ovechkin’s output on the man advantage has hovered between 13-18 goals in every full season since 2016-17. There’s no reason (coaching, offseason acquisitions, etc.) to believe he’ll exceed that upper limit this year. He’ll thus need to ramp up his 5-on-5 scoring to make up serious ground on The Great One.
The good news? Washington has attempted to beef up its EV play by adding Matt Roy, Jakob Chychrun, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Andrew Mangiapane.
The bad news? None of them are out-and-out playmakers. Neither is Hendrix Lapierre, who was granted a top-line opportunity last season.
So if an improved squad helps Ovechkin’s chase, that assistance will come indirectly. A team that isn’t stuck on its heels as much (25th in xGF%) should manufacture more volume in the OZ.
Will that move the needle for him individually? Ehhhh, maybe a bit. At this stage in his career (he’s worlds removed from his freight train era), he needs high-end service to light the lamp 40+ times. Odds are he won’t receive it. Arbitrary guess: 33 goals.
Can the Oilers make it back to the finals?
Short answer: Yes.
Long answer: From the moment they traded for a top-pairing defenseman who can actually defend (Mattias Ekholm), they altered the fortunes of their franchise. Combine that steadiness with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and an ascending Evan Bouchard, and you’ve got a perennial contender.
Better yet, they introduced sneaky scoring depth in the summer via Viktor Arvidsson (one of the few Kings who never looked terrified of the Oilers) and Jeff Skinner. The former’s busy-bee energy and close-range instincts can help Draisaitl snap out of his occasional lulls. Vasily Podkolzin is an interesting flier as well. I still feel like he has third-line potential.
Playoff punching bags Cody Ceci and Vincent Desharnais are gone, and you have to imagine the team will address its RD situation before the spring.
Although you can point to Stuart Skinner as a weakness, he rode mediocre numbers (6th in playoff SV%, 8th in GSAA/60) to the SCF. Edmonton doesn’t need him to be great or even above average. He simply can’t lose them games on his own. If he can hit that frighteningly low bar for a starting goaltender, the Oilers may rule the West once more.
Is Sheldon Keefe a good fit in NJ?
As critical as I was of his efforts in Toronto, the Devils’ personnel is a better match for his style. Keefe loves deliberate buildup play from the back end, and he’s going from Morgan Rielly to a blue line that features Dougie Hamilton, Luke Hughes (injured at the moment) and Simon Nemec.
Then there’s Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt, who can grab the puck deep and breeze through the NZ in their sleep. New Jersey’s transition game should thrive.
In the OZ, we’re about to find out whether the Leafs’ perimeter-oriented, perfect-play tendencies were down to coaching or individual preferences (looking at you, Mitch). With that said, even if that same dynamic enters the conversation, the Devils boast the puck-moving D-men to shift the point of attack and create chances from a number of different areas. Their activity will be supported by a competent clean-up crew (Timo Meier, Nico Hischier, Ondrej Palat, Dawson Mercer, kind-of-newcomer Stefan Noesen).
This formula may not lead to playoff success from the jump, but priority #1 is clinching a postseason berth. Keefe’s recipe works in that regard, and he’s been granted more suitable ingredients for his second NHL gig.
Oh, and adding Jakob Markstrom between the pipes doesn’t hurt.
Injuries are the only question mark in my eyes.