Thank you to everyone who sent in questions. I should have enough to split this Q&A into two parts. If it goes over well, we can make the mailbag an annual offseason thing.
Without further ado, let’s dive in!
Note: When there was some subject overlap, I lumped the questions together.
Who else were you gonna write about before the season starts?
Candidates to break out this year?
The original plan was to take a closer look at William Eklund, Simon Nemec and Brandt Clarke ahead of 2024-25. Maybe Logan Stankoven too.
As for other breakout candidates (outside of rookies since I don’t watch enough junior/college/international hockey to comment on their immediate impact), I think the following players could enjoy a coming-out party:
Dylan Guenther, UTA—A better skater than I remember from his WJC appearances. He attacks with pace and boasts a sweet release from mid-range. Should receive decent service from Clayton Keller or Matias Maccelli as well as a revamped blue line. Could soon establish himself as one of the better off-wing PP threats in the West.
Shane Pinto, OTT—This will boil down to opportunity. If he beats out Josh Norris for the 2C spot (he should on merit alone), he may crack 50 points while providing steady all-around play. The Sens need that. Their shape implodes way too easily.
Philip Broberg, STL—Here’s a player who’ll be granted every chance to seize a top 4 role on the back end. Torey Krug is sidelined long-term, and after Nick Leddy, Broberg’s main competition on the left side consists of P.O. Joseph, Scott Perunovich and Tyler Tucker. His smooth and quietly efficient game should win over the coaching staff.
I’ve already written about the upward trajectory of Shane Wright, Mason Lohrei, Leo Carlsson, Alex Vlasic, Hendrix Lapierre and Jack Quinn as well.
If you could change one rule, what would it be?
Kill the “distinct kicking motion” clause. For the sake of clarity, disallow all goals off a teammate’s skate.
Would this wipe a few legitimate ones off the board? Sure, but it would also make these decisions much simpler for officials. No more inconsistency. No more baffling judgment calls. No more room for debate.
The whole “let me angle my skate to bank the puck in” tactic is bogus anyway.
Will the Canucks be better or worse this year?
Hmm, this is a tricky one because it’s largely based on Thatcher Demko’s availability. Still dealing with a mystery knee issue (no timeline for recovery), the Vezina finalist masked a lot of Vancouver’s structural warts in 2023-24 (2nd in GSAA/60). I’m not convinced Arturs Silovs can hold down the fort.
Even though I like the Jake DeBrusk signing, the Canucks’ uncertainty between the pipes could lead a nervier group overall. It’s very difficult to play in front of a goaltender you don’t trust.
Then there’s the specter of regression looming over J.T. Miller and Quinn Hughes, who each set high-water marks in production last year. Is that the new normal or will their performance taper off? A trigger-happier Hughes should be fine alongside Filip Hronek (the best partner he’s had to date). However, history suggests Miller’s numbers will fluctuate to some degree:
That, in combination with the goaltending concerns, leads me to expect a drop in the standings.
Where do you live?
Who do you root for?
Despite living in Montreal, I root for the Leafs.
Yes, I should know better.
How many points for Connor Bedard in Year 2?
I hate to hit you with an “it depends” answer, but…it depends.
Although it’s safe to assume he put in work over the summer—whether that’s lower-body strength, explosiveness or skill development—who will line up next to him? Last year, his primary running mate was Philipp Kurashev. Taylor Hall is back. What about newcomers Tyler Bertuzzi or Teuvo Teravainen?
Bertuzzi would be my pick. He can fill in the gaps next to Bedard and Kurashev as a reliable wall man, net-front presence and close-range playmaker. The veteran would represent a serious upgrade over the likes of Nick Foligno and Ryan Donato on LW. Chicago’s influx of forward talent should benefit Bedard’s PP output as well. Maybe his one-timer announces itself to the world.
Then there’s the blue line. If free agent pickups TJ Brodie and Alec Martinez can help the Hawks stop the bleeding (28th-ranked xGA/60), that would afford the second-year pivot more chances to work his magic in the OZ.
Under optimal conditions (personal improvement, better linemates and tighter team structure), he could flirt with the 95-point mark. Otherwise, he probably lands closer to 80.
Thoughts on Carolina’s new defense?
You have to wonder if a stylistic shift is in store for the Eastern Conference contenders.
Shutdown duo Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei walked out the door in free agency. While I’ve never been high on the latter, Carolina will miss the former’s entry defense and net-front solidity amid the toughest minutes on the blue line:
Interestingly, the Canes didn’t settle for lesser defensive-minded substitutes. They prioritized puck-movers in Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere. Signing these pieces only to keep emphasizing rims and high flips doesn’t track, so I wouldn’t be shocked if Rod Brind’Amour introduces a wrinkle to the team’s breakout.
Extending puck-carriers (including Brent Burns) a longer leash would generate more rush chances (a persistent weakness under this regime) and perhaps position the Canes for that elusive offensive breakthrough in the spring.
Considering the imminent arrival of highly touted prospect Alexander Nikishin, now would be a great time to implement such adjustments.
Coaches are a stubborn breed, though…
I feel like Carolina's defense is now something like Dallas' with two elite defenders who lead the way, and everyone else providing varying degrees of support in different zones. Difference being, Carolina plays a more structured but more rigid offensive attack. Kind of fascinated by how that plays out and whether Rod is willing to change things. (Great work as always)
I appreciate your focus on young potential star players, looking forward to checking out all these players this season.
I didn’t agree with your no-skate goals rule change, cause it’s been that way so long (and I remember the battles over skates in the crease no goals), and the kicking motion is mostly obvious with reviews.
It occurred to me though, and I could be wrong, that any deflection off a glove is a no goal. So why is there a no-glove goal rule, but skate deflections are mostly allowed? I’d think cause hand passes aren’t allowed. Kick passes are; then why not kicking motion goals? So would your no-skate goal rule also mean no kick skate passes? Probably not.
Any change here would be controversial I’d think.