Alex DeBrincat feels out of place in Ottawa, so he wants out of town.
Unfortunately, his timing couldn’t be any worse. The 25-year-old restricted free agent fancies a hefty long-term contract, but he’s fresh off the second-least productive season of his career (on a per-minute basis). Engineering a mutually beneficial trade will take some work.
Assuming GM Pierre Dorion finds one, though, DeBrincat could raise his new club’s offense to another level.
Here’s how he operates.
Spacing
Identifying what DeBrincat isn’t provides a sense of how he contributes on the attack:
He isn’t fast enough to consistently blow by defenders.
He isn’t slick enough to dance past them.
He isn’t strong enough to shield the puck away from them.
Given these limitations, the 5’8”, 178-pound forward’s impact is predicated on the art of getting open. His off-puck movement is both subtle and purposeful, as he quickly susses out the right depth/angle to present his teammates with an attractive target:
DeBrincat’s first touch is clever as well, charting a path that instantly grants him a step on defenders. Much like an elusive player along the wall, he possesses a great feel for his opponent’s leverage, reading their feet before springing in the opposite direction. When you aren’t necessarily a burner, that early advantage is vital.
Here’s an example against the Montreal Canadiens:
Instead of merely trailing the play, DeBrincat cuts across Mike Hoffman’s (MTL 68) face to offer Claude Giroux (OTT 28) a more inviting pass and enjoy a cleaner lane to the net. His hands ultimately fail him, which sums up his 2022-23 campaign, but you can see the cerebral side of his game.
He instinctively recognizes whether to meet the puck-carrier or creep into a quiet area. Each shuffle or sprint is tailored to unlock a window.
When the action slows down in the offensive zone, his MO involves lulling defenders to sleep, shifting their gaze to his teammates as he tiptoes into good ice. He’s developed a knack for punishing puck-watchers over the years.
Despite his underwhelming raw numbers (66 points in 82 games), his spacing may have shone brightest in his lone season as a Senator:
In all situations, he’s never registered more shot attempts, shots or scoring chances. He gave himself every opportunity to pile up the stats, but a dip in shooting percentage (we’ll cover that in the next section) resulted in his lowest goal total since 2019-20.
He couldn’t finish the job.
Dual Threat
Thankfully, he isn’t a one-trick pony. Similarly to Phil Kessel, DeBrincat is known as a sniper, but his intentions aren’t set in stone. He boasts underrated vision and will gladly dish the puck to teammates in prime real estate.
Last season, DeBrincat offset a plummeting SH% with the highest primary assist rate of his career.
This versatility makes him—and his line—much tougher to defend. You can’t tell if he’s fixing to blast a bid on net or hold on and pass up a decent shot for a more dangerous one:
Of course, he remains a trigger man at heart. He’s a natural shooter who can uncork attempts in any scenario. He’s comfortable rocketing one-timers from the flank, catching and releasing in stride or flooding the slot to convert loose change. No matter where he is in the offensive zone, DeBrincat stays ready.
With that said, he isn’t the sort of effortless scorer who tickles the twine on shots that shouldn’t beat goaltenders. Think Ovechkin, Pastrnak or Stamkos.
Consider this yearly breakdown:
Spot the difference? Last year, for the first time since 2018, DeBrincat amassed more medium-danger than high-danger expected goals—and his shooting percentage nosedived. That’s no coincidence. The film and stats suggest this is a shooter who doesn’t only require chances but a steady stream of Grade A chances.
He relies on top-tier service.
Without it, he’s closer to the 27-goal scorer he was in Ottawa than the 40-goal man he was in Chicago. His suitors would be wise to assess whether they have the personnel in place to maximize his output.
On a team that can whistle the puck around, he’ll have no problem hitting the back of the net:
If you view him as a play-driving winger or a one-shot, one-goal wonder, you’ll be disappointed. Feed him plenty of juicy looks, however, and he’ll light the lamp for you. A lot.
Don’t let DeBrincat’s 2022-23 season obscure his resume and skill set. He’s only 25 and has already paced for 40+ goals three times. Combine that potency with crafty playmaking, and you’ve got a really valuable asset.
Is he a foundational player? Probably not, but he could represent the missing piece of a contender’s puzzle.