Rookie Watch: Matthew Schaefer
Best in class
Young stars tend to fade as the grind catches up. Opponents adjust. Wear and tear sets in. Connor Bedard and Leo Carlsson can vouch for that reality after their scorching-hot starts fizzled out to some degree.
So how on earth is an 18-year-old defenseman peaking down the stretch to fuel his team’s playoff chase?
Let’s dive in.
Transition Play
Similarly to Macklin Celebrini one year ago, Matthew Schaefer has announced himself as a transitional virtuoso in his first NHL campaign. You’ve heard about his wheels by now. It’s worth noting, however, that his exploits aren’t built around superhuman top speed. In fact, his high-water mark doesn’t crack the top 10 among rearguards this year.
No, this is about volume rather than sheer velocity. There isn’t a single blueliner in the circuit who plays faster than the freshman:
As I noted in my First Impressions piece:
“Schaefer may have the greenest light that any rookie defenseman has ever seen.”
While a few tweaks have been installed since mid-October, the story of his season hasn’t been turned upside down. He still seeks every opportunity to fly up the ice, weaponizing his pace to an unprecedented level at the position. Not even Cale Makar or Quinn Hughes were this visible as rookies.
Rather than settling for a supporting role, then, Schaefer has emerged as the Islanders’ chief catalyst in transition. He isn’t necessarily a more talented skater or puck-handler than his predecessor Mathew Barzal—very few players, let alone D-men, are—but he’s a more direct and adventurous burner who aims to initiate offense as soon as possible:
Not quite an effortless glider, the 2025 first overall pick busts his ass off to gain a leg up on opponents. He creates much more speed than he carries, and he does so primarily through powerful linear crossovers (i.e. single crossovers maintaining a straight-ish trajectory).
His point-of-attack burst is blinding:
Watch his pathing on these sequences. He’s skating the puck right down the opposition’s throat, yet the enhanced agility from his crossovers makes his minor movements feel massive. He enjoys east-west separation without hindering his north-south progress. He’s somehow on the rails and beyond your grasp all at once. It’s like trying to catch smoke.
Schaefer’s efficient elusiveness is particularly useful on low-swing pickups. The Isles let him gather speed off puck, hand him the baton and just…get out of the way. Whereas his blue-line peers operate in a wait-and-see playmaking glide, he views himself as the tip of the spear. He often holds back at first to sell the F1 both inside and outside threats, and once he senses a commitment, he maxes out his tempo to spring into his desired location. His unpredictability and explosiveness are more reminiscent of high-end forwards, and they’re too much for one defender—sometimes two—to handle.
Another pillar of his quasi-positionless identity is the depths to which he’ll venture without possession:
For the first month or so of his career, he may have been the league’s foremost give-and-go merchant, dishing and dashing to slip past the first line of defense. Although the swift exchanges haven’t vanished altogether, they’re rarer and occurring further up ice on account of the opposition’s restrained tack.
If teams can contest a retrieval, they’ll forecheck as they normally would. If the Isles gain clear control, F1s are beginning to sag off a bit, sacrificing pressure in exchange for containment.
In theory, that’s reasonable. In practice, Schaefer’s off-puck vision makes this a tricky proposition. Not only does he bound into space over and over again as a NZ transporter, but he also displays a knack for hiding in the weeds, letting opponents show their cards and roaring into available runways as a target himself. Particularly on line changes, reloads, and counters—situations where your five-man posture hasn’t crystallized—he’ll sniff out a long-distance race and beat you to the spot with ease. There’s no keeping up.
This side of his transition play has flourished above the rest lately. It’s more sustainable because, frankly, his teammates lack the accuracy and timing to pull off give-and-gos on a consistent basis. When he simply bolsters your numbers instead of commanding touches in tight windows, he can stress defenses while calling on his instincts to eventually work his way to the puck.
The Isles obtain a larger margin for error and reduce that of the opposition in one fell swoop. Here’s an example of his opportunistic streak vs. the Blues:
On a partial line change (Jack Finley, STL 37), former Islander Jonathan Drouin (NYI 92) must discourage a Tony DeAngelo (NYI 77) carry, while Pius Suter (STL 22) is locked onto Bo Horvat (NYI 14) along the far wall. That’s a ton of free real estate begging to be claimed.
Schaefer snatches it to manufacture a 3-on-2, but he bobbles the pass:
Any time the puck acts up, that’s an invitation to apply some heat. However, the Islanders’ 1D has generated so much tempo that Philip Broberg (STL 6) opts for a conservative plan. He’s going to try to surf him to the half-boards:
There are two problems:
Calculating a sound pursuit angle after surrendering this much territory to a speedster is a nightmare.
Schaefer is always looking to attack.
The moment Broberg’s outside foot lines up with the puck, he’s cooked. The rookie sensation cuts into the heart of the OZ, and there are no reinforcements in sight. RD Logan Mailloux (STL 23) must stay cognizant of weak-side forward Ondrej Palat (NYI 81), while Schaefer’s wheels render the tired backcheckers irrelevant:
He exhibits some of his offensive IQ here too. Knowing that Drouin, Suter and Mailloux aren’t within striking distance, he baits Broberg’s extended stick check and fires underneath his counterpart’s twig.
Second-period line changes are a little sketchy, but thanks to Schaefer’s aggro disposition, this snowballs FAST:
Whether he’s on or off the puck, the first-year pro’s transitional chops are remarkable. He torches F1s as a puck-carrier and is liable to zoom past you as a pass recipient each time your focus wavers. The worst part for opponents is that he seemingly never stops.
Now, is he a finished product in this phase? Of course not. As it stands, the rookie’s passing is merely above average. He definitely doesn’t fit the quarterback mold. Adding a hint of patience, misdirection (e.g. Adam Fox) and connectivity to his need-for-speed arsenal would make the Isles all the more slippery in the NZ. It’d be downright unfair, really.
The greatest area for improvement remains on retrieval. He occasionally struggles to conjure a tidy first touch with defenders draped on his back. Some of these botches have led to Grade A chances and goals against:
There’s no such thing as a perfect player—much less a perfect rookie—so this isn’t a huge cause for concern right now. As he matures and fills out his 6’2”, 186-pound frame, he should become more composed under threat of contact, pick out better outlets, manipulate leverage and live to fight another day by eating the puck when appropriate. The vast majority of puck-movers must learn these lessons.
In the meantime, the Islanders have a high-octane, ice-tilting monster on their hands. Since the Olympic break, his transitional value has translated to dominant play-driving numbers:
We’re 68 games in, and Schaefer has already established a unique and wildly effective style. He’s a human score effect who plays as though his team is chasing down a lead all night long. The coaching staff encourages his habits too because he represents the lone edge NYI holds over the opposition beyond Ilya Sorokin.
No other D-man on the planet forces the issue like he does. In the process, his ever-growing tidal wave is helping to conceal the roster’s ugliest warts.
In-Zone Offense
After debuting on the third pair, Schaefer is awfully close to claiming ownership of the Islanders’ offense. He rattles the opposition’s cage from puck drop to the final buzzer (12th in all-situations shot attempts), and many of the team’s breakthroughs seem to originate on his stick. He’s in the thick of everything. His teammates don’t seem to mind his kitchen-sink mentality either, as they feed the 18-year-old ad nauseam at long and mid-range.
With that said, a lull in December (6 points in 14 games) did bring about a few refinements. He’s broadened his comfort zone and rounded out his skill set just in time for the club’s push for the postseason. Smarter shots, timelier movement, bolder 1-on-1 exploits.
It takes a special breed to level up during your inaugural season:
The first upgrade involves his point play. He’s been quick on the draw from the jump and has done well to prioritize viable lanes over shot power on his one-timers. Giving his bids—and his teammates—a chance is more important to him than blasting pucks at max velocity.
However, his decision-making has taken a leap in the past two months. He’s developing a sense for when to accept his hand (traffic + available lane) vs. when to move with his catch in search of a superior look (space to maneuver):
Much like on his off-puck transition reads, Schaefer clocks attractive ramps and his counterpart’s body orientation in an instant. That’s crucial given how short platforms are in the OZ. Arrive half a second late, and he’ll roll into his reception for a downhill opportunity. Over-pursue, and he’ll step back inside to uncork against the grain. Especially with his wrister (52.9% of his tally), he’s blossoming into a diverse point shooter.
Now, none of this would matter without precision. Think of the term in respect to beating the initial defensive layer as well as beating goaltenders himself.
He has a keen nose for openings and frequently shoots just off defenders’ bodies or under their sticks. Consequently, he’s been a great friend to the team’s rebound/deflection fiends (Anders Lee and Jean-Gabriel Pageau). The newly acquired Brayden Schenn should benefit from Schaefer’s service too.
A killer transition game and sharp point shooting. Those are the bones for a top offensive D-man, and we haven’t even addressed the sexier sides of his catalog. What’s truly driving his individual output is a taste for mid-range blitzes. His ability to find open ice in which to dive down and chances to outnumber opponents around loose pucks causes defenses to scramble for their lives:
If you expected the home stretch to rein in the rookie’s assertiveness, think again. It’s soaring as the games swell in importance. He’s no longer reliant on Barzal’s skating for activation, recognizing when he can serve as a weak-side streaker, when he can flip keep-ins into rapid-fire volleys and when he can get vertical to dust his cover on reception.
He’s accessing good ice on the regular:
Schaefer’s poise in these scenarios is excellent. Instead of barreling forward at every opportunity, he’s allowing plays to breathe. In recent weeks, he’s shown a fondness for Hughes-style half-wall lurking, camping outside the dot lane so as not to arouse suspicion before curling in on reception. This places him in prime position to cash on rebounds as well. While that’s not a traditional source of offense for D-men, he’s a surprisingly prominent second-chance figure.
He’s third at his position in mid-range shots and second in mid-range goals for a reason. He’s made it a point to vacate the blue line and apply furious pressure on opponents.
You’d think such an avid shooter would be pelting goaltenders on repeat from the high slot, but this proximity to goal seems to expand his vision and stir his inner dual threat. His playmaking potential is never more apparent than on these sequences. Although he isn’t the most natural passer, the danger he presents on his platform draws enough eyes to free up his targets.
Finally, we arrive at the greenest facet of his offensive repertoire. It could soon evolve into a staple if the past month or so is any indication. I’m referring to 1-on-1 separation:
Schaefer is becoming increasingly confident and twitchy on puck. Yes, he still leans on sharp turns to shake his mark. He’s begun to complement them with feints and splashy cutbacks, though, chaining together a series of moves to twist defenders into pretzels.
In the OZ, this is what differentiates Lane Hutson from Jakob Chychrun. The former single-handedly extends and upgrades plays through his vision, east-west evasiveness and grasp of momentum. Try as they might, forwards can’t stay in front of him. Uncovering that edge imposes an uncomfortable decision on the secondary defender: Do I rush over or not? That flicker of hesitation is gold for offensive D-men.
Schaefer’s not at that level as a solo act. Not even close, but he does boast the skating and hands to will offense into existence. Here’s a promising shift in that regard:
Once Barzal reverses course up top, he and Schaefer implicitly agree to a scissor design while Ryan Pulock (NYI 6) bows out of the frame. The LD slices against the current, and it’s up to the center to determine if he or Schaefer has more space. Gustav Forsling (FLA 42) in Barzal’s grill —> drop exchange initiated:
As trigger-happy as he is, the shot conditions are far from ideal. Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA 72) has a relatively clear sight line and A.J. Greer (FLA 10) is tight enough to affect the release. Early in the season, Schaefer might have chucked it anyway or skated himself to an impasse and rimmed the puck. Something safe. Intent to make the difference in a tie game—and with a slower forward in pursuit—he feels the real estate behind him and doubles back for a controlled reset:
You’ll have to excuse this busy diagram, but that’s…kind of the point. Seeing as Paul Maurice’s man-to-man scheme is simpler tactically but more demanding physically, the Isles want to concentrate a ton of moving parts in one half of the ice, isolate a weak link and attack them in space.
Schaefer vs. Greer will do.
He also needs a partner in crime who can dish on schedule. Barzal fits the bill. Four Islanders drift above the circles, and the three who aren’t in possession begin overlapping with Schaefer, pulling Panthers defenders up or to the left of the DZ. This leaves the low right quadrant stark naked. Ripe for the Schaefer-Barzal duo to complete a give-and-go vs. the poorest skater on the ice (Greer):
Hoping to cut across Bob’s face through Aaron Ekblad’s (FLA 5) skates is certainly a choice, but Schaefer’s patience, spatial awareness, killer instinct and blink-and-you’ll-miss-it burst are on full display:
The bulk of his sizzle this season has come from stunning shot volume and a relentless straight-ahead siege. Storming the front gates has its limitations, though. Sometimes, the smoothest path forward is through a side door. 1-on-1 wiggle or link-up play. Changing the point of/time to attack. Spotting a mismatch and placing it under the microscope.
Loosening up a smidge and leveraging his skating to infiltrate the slot would produce a sustainable EV boost and raise his stock among the league’s finest offensive blueliners. In addition, it’d prove crucial to his passing in the short term.
To reiterate, his touch could use a coat or two of polish:
That may come with experience and coaching. The kid is 18 years old. It’s difficult to project what his toolkit will look like, say, three seasons from now. As it stands, he connects with teammates by sowing so much confusion as a puck-carrier and shooting threat that the passing corridors are almost impossible to miss.
The fact that he’s this good and his game continues to grow from week to week is terrifying. Consider the major uptick in 5-on-5 offense since Feb. 1:
During his shifts, his team’s expected goal rate has also risen from 2.63 to a whopping 4.00. That’s the third-highest mark in the NHL over that span.
Overall, Schaefer has registered 20 goals (4th among D-men this season and the most ever recorded by an 18-year-old blueliner) and 49 points (12th) in 68 contests. Bear in mind that Barzal is the only other star-caliber skater on this roster. Wait until his running mates can at least somewhat keep pace with his tendencies. He could hit 85 points sooner rather than later.
The process is what counts right now. He’s fundamentally altered the look and feel of the Islanders’ offense through his transition play, point shooting, activation and separation ability. They’re basic to a fault when he’s on the bench and…actually scary when he’s at the helm.
Ivan Demidov and Beckett Sennecke have put up superb seasons thus far. They shouldn’t garner a single first-place Calder Trophy vote.
Schaefer has been that impactful as a rookie rearguard, invigorating the Islanders’ puck play while providing serviceable defense on the other end (a feat in itself for teenagers). The team’s upside appears endless when he’s on the ice, and he’s on the ice A LOT (24:20 TOI). As a result, it’s gone from picking him first overall last summer to riding his coattails to playoff contention.
great analysis 👍