From a dazzling start to an injury-ravaged winter (lower-body, concussion and knee issues) to yet another glimpse of his tantalizing upside, Leo Carlsson’s rookie campaign took us on a roller-coaster ride.
Year 2 of the Ducks center’s career should produce smoother sailing. With time to acclimate to—and train for—the rigors of NHL hockey as well as his load management program behind him, the 2023 second overall pick is now poised to remind us that the early hype was justified.
Here’s how Carlsson can grab the reins of Anaheim’s offense.
Spacing
If you had to flag his biggest weakness at the moment, it’s his skating. His top speed is…fine (around league average at his position), whereas he doesn’t boast the wiggle or acceleration to pull away from defenders on the regular. Hell, Carlsson himself admits to this fault:
“I have pretty good speed when I get going, but the first three steps are important,” he told reporters at the end of the season.
Backcheckers did indeed catch up to derail his plans with alarming frequency in 2023-24. Until he summons that burst out of the starting blocks, his impact in transition will by and large come from off-puck movement.
Luckily for the Ducks, Carlsson is already distinguished in this area of the game. The 19-year-old (ANA 91) consistently gathers his head of steam at the right time and place to offer quality outlets:
His work on the breakout assumes two main forms.
First, he synchronizes his DZ swings with the wall man’s efforts, gliding up the dot line to receive a link-up pass or recover a loose puck in stride. Not only is that strong-side support of great help to his wingers under duress, but it’s critical to his team’s ability to travel from the boards to the middle of the ice.
Then there’s the deeper menace. Carlsson demonstrates a nose for empty space, often snaking into the valley behind F2 for a clean catch in the NZ.
Rather than carrying from the outset or hugging the OZ blue line to stretch defenses, he lurks in the intermediate realms. His processor stands out most in these scenarios, as he obtains the lay of the land and instantly clocks his window of opportunity, shifting the chess pieces in such a way as to roll downhill in spite of nearby traffic and middling wheels.
Here’s an example of his influence on Anaheim’s transition play:
After relaying to his RD (Ilya Lyubushkin, ANA 46), he notices that a pair of Oilers forecheckers (EDM 10 and 91) point their feet forward. That lapse leaves a juicy gap behind them, and Carlsson is prepared to exploit it in a hurry. Watch his stick as he winds up. He requests the initial pass up the boards to Ryan Strome (ANA 16) so that a bump will spring him into the OZ unimpeded.
By the time he acquires the puck, he’s built up enough momentum to enjoy a partial 2-on-1.
Meanwhile, a simpler tack dissects Nashville’s NZ posture:
Since Michael McCarron (NSH 47) is locked on to the puck-carrier (Alex Killorn, ANA 17) on this regroup, the second-year Swede recognizes that Cole Smith (NSH 36) isn’t in position to hinder him on the outside. Consequently, he swaps his north-south trajectory (between Killorn and Smith) for an easterly path that guides his counterpart into two picks (Killorn and McCarron).
In the OZ, his spacing is more impressive on the rush than on extended cycles. He prolongs lateral passing windows by mirroring the puck-carrier’s tempo and displays superb trailing instincts:
This is a 4-on-4 on entry, yet his choice to hide in the weeds compels Nathan Walker (STL 26) to attack Killorn on the half-wall. Once the Blues forward vacates the guts of the ice, Carlsson pushes to fill in and Anaheim converts an even-numbered look into a tying goal.
Although you want to feed the kid plenty of touches, given his skating limitations, they should happen in the final mile. Not the buildup phase.
Thanks to that spacing, the Ducks were at their most dangerous during his TOI:
In order to maximize his value in transition, the coaching staff should consider enforcing slightly shorter shifts (2nd among Ducks forwards last season). Fresher legs would mitigate some of his physical deficiencies. Also, they must make sure he’s partnered with competent passers (i.e. preferably not Killorn). He WILL be open, but that won’t amount to much without decent service.
Should Carlsson’s teammates connect the dots when they appear, Anaheim’s opponents could be in for a rough night.
Playmaking
Perhaps due to that poor service, Carlsson was a pass-first weapon in 2023-24 (10th among Ducks forwards in shot attempts). Adding salt to the wound, the 6’3”, 194-pound pivot’s skating and slight frame held him back, as he couldn’t rag the puck or toy with defenders in Leon Draisaitl/Mikko Rantanen fashion.
While that heft may materialize in the future, he was still an effective playmaker because of his processor. He doesn’t require lengthy possessions to thread the needle, unlocking defenses by chaining together rapid-fire dishes.
His vision is especially notable on the rush and around the goal line:
Again, we don’t see a forward who’s dancing or commanding a huge share of the biscuit. There isn’t much sauce in his repertoire either. Like a world-class putter, Carlsson generates a wealth of chances on account of his picture-perfect passing weight. Instead of aerials into congestion, he sends the puck along the ice, on the money, in premium locations.
It’s worth mentioning that on-puck separation remains an issue in the OZ. However, he buys an additional beat via forehand pullbacks (sometimes with a half-pivot) that grant him a wider field of view and alter the release point just enough to elude defenders’ sticks.
Most importantly, Carlsson boasts a rare sense of opportunism. He can detect the faintest whiff of weakness, and his search for the extra pass upgrades many good touches to great ones.
He and Olen Zellweger (ANA 51) showed off that tendency vs. the Blues:
On a three-high look, Carlsson slides across the blue line to allow Zellweger to unleash his inner rover. The moment Zack Bolduc (STL 76) stops up and prioritizes the defenseman’s pass—thereby blowing containment—Carlsson knows his fellow freshman is toast. Return feed —> laser off the bar.
If you drop the ball for a millisecond, Anaheim’s prized center is prepared to make you pay.
Not always immediately, though:
As Pavel Mintyukov (ANA 34) brakes to reopen the middle of the ice, Johnny Gaudreau (CBJ 13) serves as a last-man-back nuisance to the Ducks. Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets, Carlsson accepts the pass and hangs on a hair longer than the typical tic-tac-toe rhythm would dictate, inviting Gaudreau’s full extension to slip the puck underneath it.
In lieu of jaw-dropping sauce or seasoned puck protection skills, it’s his timing that rules the roost. He knows exactly where and when to distribute the puck in order to concoct plus situations.
It’s not all rosy, of course. He needs to bulk up to fulfill his below-the-dots potential. Puck management near the point is another concern, as the majority of his OZ turnovers occurred in those areas. He almost seemed surprised by defenders’ urgency in “safe” zones.
Nevertheless, Carlsson’s offensive ceiling is sky high—and not strictly as a playmaker either. He was a very selective trigger man last season:
A deeper and more talented roster (a healthy Trevor Zegras, highly touted prospect Cutter Gauthier, solid puck-movers on the back end) may reveal a taste for mid-range shooting to complement his close-quarters activity. How many goals could he pot between, say, Zegras and Troy Terry for an entire year?
Furthermore, the PP was a mess in 2023-24 (25th). There were rotations, but they felt rote. The players need to move with purpose. Carve out an identity and lean into it. In Carlsson’s case, his spot should hover between the hashes and goal line. That’s where his passing really shines. Install some high-low —> backdoor/bumper progressions and the Ducks will be cooking with gas.
Health, summer training, experience, a stronger supporting cast, a PP that should trend upward.
Just as there were plenty of reasons for Carlsson’s midseason slump, there are plenty of reasons to believe he’s ripe for a breakout. On calmer seas, he may well double the 29 points (in 55 games) that he posted under less than ideal circumstances as a rookie.
Great article! Love some attention for Leo, who usually falls in the shade of Bedard/Fantilli/Celebrini.