How Matthew Tkachuk Slices Defenses Apart
Florida's offseason prize is emerging as a true superstar
Disclaimer: In order to even out any peaks and valleys, the clips in this article were pulled from six randomly selected games.
Following a blockbuster trade in the summer, the reigning Presidents’ Trophy-winning Florida Panthers are 14-12-4. They sit three points outside of a wild-card spot.
As tempting as it might be, you can’t blame Matthew Tkachuk for their struggles.
Florida’s marquee offseason acquisition leads the Panthers with 39 points and is tied for seventh in league scoring. He’s been the team’s best performer virtually every night. For what it’s worth, the 25-year-old has also posted the highest average GameScore in the NHL this season:
Given Tkachuk’s uncanny chemistry with Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm as a member of the Calgary Flames, this is an unexpected development. After all, they formed the most effective forward trio in the sport just one year ago.
Why exactly does he look even better alongside new linemates in a new system?
Buildup Play
At their core, the Panthers are a freewheeling wagon. They throw caution to the wind and count on their ability to bury chances at a higher rate than their opponents amid the chaos.
That style fits Tkachuk like a glove.
Sure, he isn’t the quickest forward around, but he plays fast. The moment he gains possession of the puck, he seeks to drive the action up the ice and down the opposition’s throat. As a rather awkward skater, however, he can’t kick down the door himself. Instead, his go-for-the-jugular approach usually takes the shape of incisive transition passes.
Watch how he enables the Panthers to get downhill early and often:
Head coach Paul Maurice has wisely stuck with Darryl Sutter’s decision to slide Tkachuk from left to right wing. On the breakout, this opens up forehand passing angles into the middle of the ice.
Better yet, Maurice’s system calls for more activity from the blue line than Sutter’s does. This means Tkachuk has more options than ever.
One clean pass, and the Panthers are off to the races.
His knack for turning an ordinary touch into a blistering head of steam is special. No team registers more shot attempts or scoring chances than Florida does when he’s on the ice. And since many of those come off the rush, the Panthers are an absolute menace during his shifts.
Office Work
It’s understandable, then, that teams aim to slow the Panthers down. An explosive group can’t hurt you if they can’t hit their stride, right?
With Tkachuk around, that’s only…kind of true. Even when the game switches from full-on sprints to greasy board battles, he can impose a breakneck pace through his playmaking from below the goal line. There may not be a better passer from this area in the NHL.
ESPN’s broadcast team recently highlighted how prolific he is from Gretzky’s office:
Defenses can’t let their guard down for a second because Tkachuk doesn’t need that long to attempt a high-danger pass. Once again, being a RW helps to extract all of his offensive upside. When he’s posted up along the goal line, he can connect on a lightning-quick forehand dish or a blind backhand setup in his sleep.
By the time defenders shift their gaze to Tkachuk, he’s already sent the puck right back into the belly of the beast:
He keeps you honest too. He might opt for the center slot or the backdoor. A one-touch or a double-clutch pass. No matter how he chooses to proceed, his execution is both blinding and accurate.
That combination is pivotal to a Panthers attack that tends to peter out in more structured settings. Tkachuk’s goal-line magic provides the club with another brand of offense. A chance-generating machine in cycle situations. Frankly, you should cover him as closely below the goal line as you would a threat in the slot. He’s that dangerous from there.
Due to his offensive versatility, Florida registers 19.94 high-danger opportunities per 60 minutes when he’s on the ice. That’s the single highest mark in the league.
Don’t blink or he’ll ruin your night.
Deception
Since Tkachuk is so eager to push the tempo, opponents are mystified when he dials it back—which, ironically enough, is when he’s in space.
He puts them in limbo for a couple of reasons.
First off, they have no idea what he has up his sleeve because he’s never been more willing to fire the puck himself. He might be known as a passer, but he’s registering career highs in scoring chances, high-danger chances, expected goals and actual goals. He’s potted 14 goals in 28 games.
Secondly, the wait for Tkachuk to show his hand can be agonizing due to his sluggish skating. Notice how uncomfortable he makes defensemen and goaltenders as he bears down on them at a snail’s pace:
It’s somehow clumsy and controlled all at once. More importantly, it’s impossible to look away. Teams regularly catch themselves puck-watching as Tkachuk ponders whether to pass, pull the trigger or take an extra beat to send goaltenders flying in the wrong direction.
To them, it’s a train wreck they can’t avoid. To the Panthers, it’s poetry in slow motion.
On the strength of Tkachuk’s transition play, goal-line passing and dual-threat nature, Florida averages a ridiculous 4.09 xGF/60 (2nd among forwards with 300+ minutes played at 5-on-5) and 5.22 GF/60 (1st) during his shifts.
That makes him the most potent even-strength weapon in hockey—at least thus far in 2022-23.
Tkachuk’s sea change has gone as swimmingly as he could have hoped. Despite a revolving door of linemates, he’s enjoying the highest ice time and scoring rate in his career. Moreover, he appears to relish being the guy within Florida’s all-offense, all-the-time identity.
Maybe a shakeup was precisely what he needed to find his groove.