Early Returns: Seth Jones in FLA
A step in the right direction
Two weeks ago, we seemed bound for a dull trade deadline. By the end of it, Mikko Rantanen, Brad Marchand, Brock Nelson and more notable names were dealt to contenders in a dizzying flurry.
Florida’s acquisition of Seth Jones on March 1 quite possibly kick-started the leaguewide arms race, as its move to leverage Matthew Tkachuk’s LTIR status into a big-ticket blueliner signaled that the defending champs are still hungry. Whether that hunger drove them to the correct target remains to be seen.
Here’s how Jones is settling in so far.
Defense
It’s no secret that Jones’ NZ defense has been a mess for years. Due to his clunky transitions, he granted puck-carriers acres of space to work with in Columbus and Chicago. They couldn’t necessarily storm past him, but they could stroll into good ice all the same.
The Panthers don’t have time for that passive nonsense. As head coach Paul Maurice told reporters, “We’re not a ‘give ice’ team.” His troops attack the puck as soon as they locate it. More importantly as it relates to Jones’ arrival, their F3s have been hard-wired to support that pressure from the blue line. D-men can therefore gap up with total confidence that someone has their back.
“We play a five-man unit and everyone does their job, everyone tracks, and we're able to kind of suffocate teams with the way our defensemen can pinch," Jones said. "Forwards are always there to cover.”
In other words, he’s landed on one of the few clubs that can conceal his skating warts and encourage a more aggressive bent.
Panthers Jones looks nothing like Blue Jackets or Blackhawks Jones (FLA 3):
Where he once appeared terrified of letting the play get behind him, he’s now content to derail the man in front of him and him alone. It’s a “Gap Control for Dummies” approach that doesn’t require Jones to measure angles and match speeds. Just go. If the puck happens to squeak free in the process, don’t sweat it. His partner or a Panthers forward will swoop in to lend a hand.
Turns out his imposing size (6’4”, 213 lbs) and straight-line wheels (65th percentile) are pretty useful for challenging puck-carriers/pass recipients when that boldness is baked into your structure:
Notice the Panthers bodies around Jones when he steps up. He’s insulated. Emboldened. The difference in his demeanor (on his toes vs. on his heels) is night and day. Kudos to Florida for ignoring the noise to identify a scheme fit and to Jones for buying in.
While he’s sprung a couple of leaks over these four games, it’s four games. Ultimately, the fact that the 30-year-old has already embraced a new style points to a rosy outlook this season and beyond (5 more years at $7M AAV).
His NZ adaptability is critical in light of otherwise…spotty defense. Jones remains a deeply frustrating figure in the DZ. He might not run forwards through the wall, but he boasts the prototypical blueliner’s frame and can indeed overwhelm players with his reach and strength at the point of attack:
In the third clip, he manhandles 6’4”, 219-pound Alex Tuch (BUF 89) in the corner, jarring the puck loose for the Panthers to clear on the PK.
Unfortunately, the toolbox doesn’t stack up to the toolkit. A number of coverage hiccups have suggested that stiff competition could pose a problem in the postseason. These don’t boil down to timing or chemistry. He’s merely losing his focus or cheating for offense—and such tendencies were an issue in previous seasons too.
On top of that, his stick work isn’t as reliable as you’d like:
Due to these lapses, Florida is bleeding high-danger chances during his shifts (as always, consider the sample size):
Although Maurice would have likely preferred to lay off heavy PK deployment and tough matchups for now, Aaron Ekblad’s 20-game suspension has thrust Jones into RD1 duty alongside Gustav Forsling. That’s a scary proposition for the Panthers’ boom-or-bust pickup, and the duo’s debut vs. the Bruins was a flop (28:40 TOI, 30.2 xGF%, 0 GF, 1 GA).
More reps should help. A healthier forward corps should eventually lead to a firmer grip over proceedings (i.e. less DZ time) and thereby soften his flaws too.
Jones’ upside remains lofty, but the Panthers are more concerned with their title defense than their long-term future at the moment. As such, they’d be thrilled for him to become a pseudo-Shrek (more pass break-ups and net-front physicality) by the beginning of the playoffs.
When the real one joins the fray, the blue line would find itself in great shape.
Offense
As tentative as Jones’ NZ defense has been over the years, the 2013 fourth overall selection has never been shy about jumping into the attack, destabilizing opponents with his size, puck skills and initiative.
Come to think of it, that sounds a lot like…2019-2022 Ekblad. It’s easy to forget that he displayed quite an offensive streak before he and Forsling formed a matchup-focused partnership. He paced for 60 points over that span (9th among D-men in P/PG) and offered the Panthers a towering north-south weapon who was liable to pop up anywhere in the OZ.
Jones is similarly tricky to contain:
Frankly, he’s not elusive or incisive from the point. The Panthers don’t need him to be. They ask for volume—and that, he can provide. His impressive wingspan enables him to create daylight for a clean release and he’s accurate enough to give his forwards a crack at rebounds and deflections.
Tkachuk’s eventual return to the goalmouth should further highlight Jones’ knack for filtering shots past the first wave of defenders.
Until then, he can tip the scales as a straight-ahead freight train. His skating gets the job done and his off-puck vision is sharp, as he does well to recognize east-west lanes he can step into to launch Florida’s transition game.
Watch him activate from the weak side vs. Buffalo:
On both of these sequences, he supplies his teammates with quality lateral targets as well as numbers on the rush.
The second clip shows how closely opposing forwards must mark Jones. F3 Josh Norris (BUF 13), who’s supposed to keep a lid on the counterattack, starts puck-watching and pays for it. By the time he peeks over his right shoulder to assess the damage, Jones has obtained enough of a cushion to rumble into the slot.
His offensive eagerness isn’t restricted to buildup play. In his brief time as a Panther, he’s been creeping forward the moment he senses a change of possession or gap in coverage:
These forays haven’t produced much to this point (1 PP assist in 4 games, 0 GF/60 at 5-on-5). While Jones isn’t exactly a surgical talent either, something’s gotta give through force of repetition.
We should also mention that Florida has left some chances on the table in transition. Perhaps the forwards aren’t used to scanning for him yet. As a result, we haven’t seen the full breadth of his shoot-first mentality. Connecting in the clips below would have spelled trouble for the opposition:
Whether or not Jones lights up the scoresheet himself, his willingness to push the envelope brings a rush dynamic that vanished when Brandon Montour did. Maurice’s club still strikes in a millisecond off the forecheck. Complementing that in-zone pace with cut-throat transition/counters would restore the Panthers’ offensive balance.
And that would bolster their odds of repeating.
Of course, achieving this with greater defensive responsibility is a delicate dance. Ekblad’s P/PG has plummeted to 45th among D-men since 2022-23. As Florida waits on Ekblad, it may have to choose between the best defensive or offensive version of Jones.
After three games alongside Niko Mikkola on the second pair, Jones’ grace period is over. He’s been plopped next to Forsling and must now prove that he’s a viable Ekblad replacement (or upgrade). Big minutes aren’t foreign to him, but big minutes on a Stanley Cup front-runner hit different.
You wanted a chance to win? You got it, RD1.
No pressure.