Early Returns: John Carlson
Playing to their strengths
Entering play on Thursday, the Ducks trail Edmonton and Vegas in the Pacific Division’s “pillow fight.” They’ve dropped four straight games and gone 5-5-2 with splashy trade deadline acquisition John Carlson in the lineup (21st in points percentage over that span).
None of this inspires much confidence.
In spite of the team’s hiccups down the home stretch, the logic behind the move is sound. Here’s why.
Transition Play
Joel Quenneville’s troops are averaging the third-most expected goals for and conceding the second-most expected goals against this season. At 5-on-5, they may be the single highest-event club in the circuit.
As such, no newcomer was going to plug Anaheim’s leaks overnight.
The Ducks are hoping there’s more than one way to skin a cat, though. By slotting Carlson behind a gifted and diverse forward corps (Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Troy Terry, Beckett Sennecke, Mikael Granlund, Chris Kreider, Mason McTavish), they’re banking on the notion that the best defense they can ice in 2025-26 is…a better offense. The 36-year-old pending UFA can certainly help in that department, and his value is first felt in transition:
Poise is the word that comes to mind when watching Carlson on the breakout. He hits target after target in such an unassuming manner that it feels like he’s not even trying.
Part of that is down to how rarely he turns on the afterburners (84th percentile in top speed, below 65th percentile in every other skating metric). He can get around pretty quickly. He just prefers dealing over wheeling. Another component of note is his internal clock. The veteran blueliner boasts a keen understanding of how long he should hold on to pucks in order for his passing windows to reach peak ripeness:
More specifically, he exhibits the merits of perimeter passing thanks to his eye for both the weakness in your NZ posture (more often than not on the flanks) and the opportune moment to exploit it.
On resets, he hits recipients as the Ducks check back onside to catch and attack in one fluid motion. His quick ups torch the opposition on line changes. During quick interplay, he determines which hat to wear (beneficiary or decoy) in a flash and thus knows where he wants to go with the puck before his teammate has initiated their feed. In the latter role, he’ll invite the walls to close in and then bounce the puck right past them to a less guarded patch of ice. That temporary misdirection, along with his recipient’s speed differential, uncovers ample daylight for the Ducks.
Watch him weaponize the threat of a middle drive against the Flames:
With Carlsson (ANA 91) itching to fly up the ice, Carlson (ANA 74) gains some width to let the center gather a head of steam off puck and force a choice out of F1 Ryan Strome (CGY 22). Anaheim will inevitably enjoy a beat either along the wall or in the guts of the ice.
Only one:
Martin Pospisil (CGY 76) does a great job of climbing back above the puck to discourage a middle-lane carry. F3 Victor Olofsson (CGY 95) is spying just in case as well. This is going to be TOUGH sledding:
Carlsson wisely hands the puck back to his RD. Since Pospisil must skate with his counterpart, Olofsson is shading deeper as a precaution, and Strome will aim to squeeze Carlson to the bench, the defenseman decides to capitalize on the F1’s body orientation. Back to the puck = no stick in the picture. Carlson is therefore free to slide underneath his pivot and into good ice.
It bears mentioning that strong-side winger Chris Kreider (ANA 20) is occupying LD Olli Määttä’s (CGY 3) attention and RD Hunter Brzustewicz (CGY 48) is holding a central-ish berth out of respect for Carlsson’s skill.
This means there are no defenders near weak-side wall man Sennecke (ANA 45):
While the Flames have the numbers to squash Anaheim’s designs, showing middle-lane intentions narrows their structure to the point where the wide option becomes glaring. This is a great illustration of Carlson’s “when one door closes…” calculus and sharp timing.
Two on-schedule passes convert a DZ recovery into a controlled entry for one of the Ducks’ brightest talents:
Here’s another example of his cool distribution on the breakout:
No-handle fakes keep Morgan Frost (CGY 16) guessing, ensure that the puck maintains its course and secure his escape route around the cage.
A free-arm wedge removes the F1’s stick from the equation.
Upon scanning up ice, he notices that a backskating Matt Coronato (CGY 27) is crossing over inside, granting Kreider additional breathing room on the left flank.
Silky sauce to Kreider through Ryan Poehling’s (ANA 25) feet.
As a bonus, Brzustewicz’s stumble allows Kreider to race in alone.
Carlson isn’t taking on defenses himself or threading the needle from miles away. He’s simply orchestrating the initial phase of Anaheim’s attack via when-and-where mastery, pulling defenders to the heart of the rink to gift-wrap entries out wide. Touches arrive on the right tape at the right time. Command over sizzle.
When he does flash inside the dots, it’s a result of off-puck activation:
Carlson is primarily a quarterback, but he isn’t afraid of jumping into the action. His Spider-Sense for changes of possession (whether or not he’s involved) and blown containment trigger the green light for him to add bodies to the rush.
We’ve established that he isn’t the fleetest of foot, so his contributions to Anaheim’s transition game stem from brilliant timing once again. Instead of skating circles around opponents, his play recognition beats them to the punch. He’ll smell his chance, streak up the weak side or center lane and bolster the Ducks’ numbers before the other team can sort out its coverage.
On an otherwise chaotic team, a D-man with his composure and smarts is bound to have a galvanizing effect. Sure enough, he leads the Ducks’ back end in shot attempt and expected goal share by a sizable margin since his debut—and that’s alongside partners who categorically aren’t play-drivers (Mintyukov and Moore):
Carlsson and Gauthier are riding star trajectories. Sennecke has been outstanding in his rookie campaign. Terry became a top-six staple the day he realized what a defensive triangle is. Granlund has shifts in which he downright wills the puck into the net. Kreider’s close-range menace hasn’t evaporated. There’s no shortage of skill on this roster. What it needed, in the absence of sounder team-wide defense, was a field general who could wrangle all that talent and point it in the right direction.
Carlson has the tools for the job.
Point Play
Carlson’s reputation as Alex Ovechkin’s longtime setup man sells his impact short. However, don’t mistake him for a new-school offensive blueliner either. He’d probably keel over from attempting to mimic Quinn Hughes, Cale Makar or Lane Hutson’s high-octane tendencies.
The 17th-year pro is a pure QB who governs proceedings from his post on the blue line:
He moves the puck with fluidity and intelligence—and this is particularly evident on the PP. Granted time to dissect the opposition, he thrives at hanging on to possession until the nearest defender must commit to guarding him and then slinging the puck to a waiting trigger man. Goaltenders frequently fall victim to his deception too on account of his shot velocity (10th among D-men in 90-100 mph shots).
His radar for such openings is complemented by clever spacing, as he’ll tweak it ever so slightly to present forwards with positional dilemmas and make them pay when they guess wrong.
This is a player who has his finger on the PK’s pulse. He imposes his pace of play, slowing down or accelerating depending on his view of the opposition’s jugular:
Due to his underwhelming mobility, his influence at 5-on-5 dips in accordance with the reduction in time and space. He still chips in his share of offense, but it no longer feels as though he’s piloting the attack. Rather, he supplements it through buildup passing and selective point shooting. No one on the roster fires for traffic as effectively as the vet (that’s Jackson LaCombe’s main OZ weakness). He alternates between scoring (i.e. full-on bombs) and service (i.e. softer tippable shots) bids, and to further confuse defenders, he mixes in plenty of shot-passes when they enter “front at all costs” mode.
Similarly to a wily craftsman in the boxing ring, he can tag you a number of a different ways from the same initial look:
In addition to benefiting Kreider, Carlson’s point shooting simplifies Carlsson and Sennecke’s games. These up-and-comers are extremely skilled but sometimes guilty of prioritizing 1-on-1 duels over the team concept. Having a D-man launch pucks on goal trims a chunk of their decision-making fat and hastens their time to attack.
Funneling his teammates toward the crease has already proven fruitful. His xGF/60 trails LaCombe’s by a hair and it feels as though the Ducks buzz around the net instead of accepting one-and-dones when he’s out there.
Head to the goalmouth, and he’ll find you:
Peep the line on his one-timer. Against the grain and center mass-ish. He’s clearly shooting for a Kreider deflection. Moreover, his clapper concentrates Calgary’s gaze between the hashes, allowing Granlund (ANA 64) to escape Mikael Backlund’s (CGY 11) grasp at the back door.
Compress —> cash is the Carlson throughline.
With that said, his offensive imprint isn’t restricted to point-of-attack IQ. Yes, he hones the tip of the spear. His keep-ins also bring more spears to the party in the first place, extending OZ shifts to ramp up Anaheim’s pressure. He nips strong-side exits in the bud and his depth on 50/50 pucks around the high wall is immaculate, as he’ll hover close enough to prolong the attack at the 11th hour while giving himself the cushion to turn and burn if necessary. For a slower skater, he performs this high-wire act under total control:
So we have a player who complements and enhances the team’s existing skill, and he affords it extra opportunities to shine?
Doesn’t take a genius to determine that more AND better offense might help. Since joining the team, he ranks ninth among blueliners leaguewide in all-situations assist rate:
His numbers and the team’s record would look even better if not for a stroke of bad luck. Prior to Gauthier’s upper-body injury, Carlson had racked up nine points in eight games (0 in his last 4 appearances) and the Ducks had rattled off a 5-1-2 record. The D-man’s puck movement isn’t quite as persuasive without the second-year winger’s overwhelming scoring threat on the ice.
Upon Cutter’s return (possibly this weekend), Anaheim’s ability to deploy high-end distributors on two separate pairings (see: LaCombe in the table above) will be pivotal to preserving/improving its place in the standings.
It’s true. His skating can lead to struggles in space. On off nights, that same effortlessness in transition reads as…an abject lack of effort:
Now zoom out for a second: No single player was going to rectify the team’s wide-ranging defensive issues in 2025-26 anyway. Even with Moritz Seider on the roster, the coverage breakdowns and shortcuts taken up front would persist. If the Ducks’ brass want their young core to experience postseason hockey and put up a fight in the first round, they must sharpen their blade.
At least this season, doubling down on offense might be their best bet.