Breakout Alert: Philip Broberg
St. Louis' offseason gamble is paying off
A brief refresher on the Philip Broberg offer sheet:
23-year-old defenseman with 81 regular season games under his belt.
The Oilers declined to match those terms and were thus awarded a compensatory second-round pick.
Fast-forward 10 games, and St. Louis’ bet on unproven talent seems like a bargain. In a much more prominent role (~20 minutes TOI/GP vs. ~12 in Edmonton), the smooth-skating Swede is fulfilling the all-around potential that compelled his previous team to select him eighth overall in 2019.
Here’s how.
Transition Play
At the start of training camp, head coach Drew Bannister offered his two cents on the team’s offseason acquisitions (Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Mathieu Joseph, Alexandre Texier, etc.):
“This certainly lets us play a more aggressive, faster hockey game.”
No newcomer has made more of an impact in this respect than Broberg. Beyond the fact that St. Louis is a counterpunching outfit, which places a heavy burden on the D-corps, he’s also its savviest puck manager. Since he was already a smart and economical passer in Edmonton, that part isn’t surprising. With more leeway and responsibility from the coaching staff, Broberg’s transition game is flourishing on the Blues.
In a nutshell, he’s gone from watching Connor McDavid dust the entire league to playing a pivotal role on the breakout himself (STL 6):
Standing 6’4”, 212 pounds and boasting the wingspan of an even taller player, Broberg can hold the puck far beyond the grasp of forecheckers. This limited exposure allows him to maintain his cool under pressure, survey the landscape at his pace and choose from the wealth of passing angles that his reach affords him.
It’s almost like his physique blesses him with a bird’s-eye view of the ice. Occupying his natural left side (he played RD during the Oilers’ playoff run) has enhanced his comfort level too. From his perch, he calmly, consistently locates a safe path forward. His decisions seem effortless. Better yet, he’s a pinpoint distributor. Whether he’s doling out link-ups or long bombs, he either hits his target in stride or leads them. They never have to halt their progress.
Watch how his stretch pass sets the stage for a rush vs. the Habs:
Thanks to its accuracy, Joseph (STL 71) can catch and head north without missing a beat, while Zack Bolduc (STL 76) can build the momentum required to zip past David Savard (MTL 58) in the slot. No flash. No sizzle. One timely pass, and the Blues can attack with collective tempo.
Now, we already had some sense of his distributive talent. His north-south blitzes, on the other hand, have been a revelation early on. Who knew Edmonton had been hiding a 6’4” blueliner with elite wheels?
The transitional freedom he’s been granted has turned him into not only an incisive breakout passer but a far more visible puck-carrier and weak-side outlet. He’s joining the rush on a regular basis. Sometimes he’s leading it.
In those scenarios, Broberg’s reach + speed combo borders on a cheat code. When rounding the net, challenging opponents in the middle of the ice or barreling up the boards, he can place the puck in a cradle that 99% of NHL players can’t access. If you grant him more than a stride or two of runway, your odds of stopping this freight train plummet.
Jalen Chatfield (CAR 5), a strong skater in his own right, can vouch for his speed:
Later in that game vs. the Hurricanes, Broberg comes out of nowhere to support Brayden Schenn (STL 10) in transition. He’s basically shot out of a cannon:
Interestingly, for such an engaged defenseman on the breakout, he’s a serial under-handler. He doesn’t attempt to dangle through defenders. He doesn’t show them enough of the puck to give them any hopes of dispossessing him. He simply makes full use of his frame, bypassing one traffic cone after another in a near-robotic manner.
The scary bit is that he hasn’t maxed out his upside. At the moment, he’s prone to locking on to his destination and blazing ahead. Introducing a measure of deception and more speed changes would benefit his NZ play long-term. Still, it’s tough to argue with his results (8 points in 10 games without any PP1 time).
Broberg’s presence hasn’t prevented the Blues from getting caved in at 5-on-5 (25th in xGF%), but when he’s on the ice, there’s at least a potent threat of return fire.
NZ Defense
Armed with the range to suffocate offenses whole, you might think Broberg is shutdown material. That’s pushing it—at least for now.
His DZ reads are a touch sluggish. In close quarters, his stick is active but not all that precise. The area in which his defense does thrive is on the move, when he’s tendered room for error/recovery and can leverage his physical tools. His face-up length flusters puck-carriers from a mile away on entries. Meanwhile, he can catch up and deny positional advantages in a millisecond.
Pay attention to how much ground he covers in space:
Broberg does indeed cut an imposing figure in his backskate. However, he’s most effective as a high-octane surfer whose aggressive angling nips offensive designs in the bud. He’ll gladly slice across the width of the rink to deny the blue line—hell, it’s often the red line—and with his size and speed, it’s frightening how quickly he can track you down and escort you to the wall.
Physically, he resembles Hampus Lindholm or former Blues rearguard Jay Bouwmeester, but with a whole other gear. Once he decides to flip his hips and attack the opposition, any inkling of space you were expecting has vanished. You’re stuck in his shadow now.
Kirill Kaprizov (MIN 97) found that out a couple of weeks ago:
Anticipating a Justin Faulk (STL 72) turnover, Minnesota’s dynamo flies the zone to launch a counter. Look at where Broberg begins this sequence (bottom left). In the ~2 seconds it takes for Zach Bogosian (MIN 24) to send Kaprizov his breakout pass, the LD has gained depth, switched sides and can therefore contest possession while traveling downhill. A 3-on-2 is killed at center ice.
On nights when he’s especially dialed in, he can ensnare opponents in the OZ to extend the attack:
Upon receiving an outlet pass, Liam Ohgren (MIN 28) doesn’t even entertain the possibility that the opposition can affect his next move. Fatal mistake. Broberg swallows the rookie’s cushion before he can muster a pass, and mere seconds later, Minnesota is fishing the puck out of its cage.
Of course, this is an extraordinary outcome. The vast majority of the time, his gap control serves to keep DZ reps to a minimum. This is crucial because he isn’t a net-front stalwart and the Blues as a whole are a leaky group. Perhaps most importantly, despite his experience and skill set, Faulk is…something of an adventure at both ends of the ice. He and Torey Krug formed one of the worst pairings in hockey last year.
Broberg has helped him stay out of trouble to open the campaign, as the veteran D-man is posting his lowest expected goals-against rate since 2020-21:
We can’t chalk this up to a team-wide improvement either. For the first time in four seasons, he’s conceding xGs at a lower rate than his stablemates while logging the highest average ice time on the squad.
Winning those minutes has been vital to St. Louis’ 5-5-0 record.
Regardless of Broberg’s efforts, the Blues will struggle to stay afloat without Robert Thomas (fractured ankle).
That’s OK. St. Louis entered the summer with a soft rebuild in mind. It knows what mid-aged stars Thomas, Jordan Kyrou and Pavel Buchnevich bring to the table. Colton Parayko should have 2-3 serviceable seasons left in the tank. Jake Neighbours and Dylan Holloway are cementing their futures on the club. Now it appears the team has nabbed a foundational 23-year-old LD.
Slowly but surely, the puzzle is coming together.
I was skeptical of signing Broberg given the huge offer sheet and whether he could perform in an 82 game season. I was proven wrong, fair play to Broberg because his move to St. Louis feels like a kick in the nuts for the Oilers.