Breakout Alert: Dylan Samberg
From sheltered to shutdown minutes
The league-leading Winnipeg Jets are rolling. Kyle Connor and Mark Scheifele power a fearsome top line. Nikolaj Ehlers is driving his own unit by playing the best hockey of his career. On the other side of the puck, the team is sitting on the NHL’s lowest goals-against average. Quite a strong foundation.
Then again, we’ve…kind of been here before. After their fourth-place finish yielded a first-round exit in 2023-24, the burning question is whether the Jets are better prepared for playoff hockey this season.
Dylan Samberg’s emergence as a second-pairing rock suggests that at least the defense should be. Here’s why.
Gap Control
In his first three seasons, Winnipeg slow-cooked its 2017 second-round pick’s pro development. His usage was as follows:
14:51 TOI/GP vs. soft competition in 2021-22
14:56 TOI/GP vs. soft competition in 2022-23
15:38 TOI/GP vs. soft competition in 2023-24
Granting Samberg a taste of NHL skill and tempo without throwing him into the fire has enabled him to gradually refine his decision-making until it was fit for difficult minutes. This is never more apparent than in the NZ, where he’s blossoming into a sizable roadblock for the opposition.
Watch how he (WPG 54) suffocates forwards in space:
At 6’4” and 216 pounds, the rearguard wields his range and anticipation to offset clunky skating (average top speed and occasionally awkward transitions). His shadow looms large over the action, often discouraging teams from testing the left side of the ice on entries. If they persist, they’ll encounter a defender who sports a wide array of zone-denying tools.
His hair-trigger reads on stretch passes place him in your hip pocket before you can even complete the catch, mucking up offensive designs with his long stick first and hulking frame second:
That’s a lot of man to deal with.
On more controlled breakouts, Samberg identifies likely pass recipients and carves out pursuit angles that kill any inkling of an escape route—even if that means slicing into partner Neal Pionk’s (WPG 4) side of the rink. He refuses to tender opponents free breathing room and will switch over in order to shepherd them to the boards.
Notice his calm demeanor in the clips below. He could probably lay a decent lick on Kevin Rooney (CGY 21) and Tom Wilson (WSH 43), but why risk it when you can choke off their oxygen from a safe distance instead? Once he chooses to surf them to the wall, they’re in handcuffs.
The ice behind him may as well not exist:
Finally, when puck-carriers are able to get out of the starting blocks and build speed through the NZ, he displays great patience and timing, laying on/off the throttle to dig his heels in at the optimal location.
In his backskate, he’ll split the difference between charging strong-side opponents and wait for you to come to him. This coaxes forwards into a situation they’d prefer to avoid—handling the puck in traffic near the blue line. The moment you breach his striking distance, he applies pressure.
Winnipeg’s contest vs. the Flames on Jan. 26 provided some examples of his savvy:
On the first sequence, Mason Appleton (WPG 22) stumbles to the ice and gives MacKenzie Weegar (CGY 52) additional runway with which to generate an opportunity. Samberg quickly takes stock of his surroundings:
Though Appleton has squandered most of his momentum, Weegar’s carry-in forces the far-side Flames forward (Jakob Pelletier, CGY 22) to ride the blue line in an effort to stay onside. This means Appleton can pick the winger up and Pionk can swap his assignment to the threat in middle ice.
Since Samberg knows help is on the way, he resists the urge to go all in on Weegar. He only shades centrally enough to push the Calgary blueliner off his forehand and toward Pionk. Without a full commitment, Samberg’s depth and inside-out stick work persuade his counterpart to think better of a backhand dish, resulting in a blind, off-target spin pass.
In the second clip, Calgary tries to outnumber him on entry. Thanks to his reach and peripheral recognition (Nazem Kadri, CGY 91, opening his hips to invite a pass removes north-south explosion from the equation), he settles into an ideal hedging posture and breaks up the pass out wide.
A towering defenseman who boasts sharp timing can cover A LOT of ground. The fact that he doesn’t chase haphazardly enhances his NZ effectiveness too. He understands that you must knock on his door sooner or later. That rarely turns out well. Despite a significant increase in ice time (20:58 TOI/GP) and quality of competition, the team concedes far fewer shot attempts when he’s out there:
Four years into his pro career, Samberg can now see the bigger picture. His bird’s-eye view of the NZ’s moving parts makes it easier for him to assess whom he should mark, where his support is, when he can pursue and how much of a speed differential is manageable.
He’s figured out what he can get away with. Consequently, very few opponents can get past him.
Net-Front Defense
In addition to his NZ barricade, Samberg possesses some old-school DZ tendencies that shine in the trenches of postseason warfare. He keeps Winnipeg’s crease spotless.
Backup Jets netminder Eric Comrie neatly summarized his impact in late January:
“He’s the goalie’s best friend out there.”
Don’t mistake heft for nastiness, though. He isn’t a bruiser, really. An apt comparable would be Willie Mitchell or Adam Pelech—a dependable defenseman whose toughness amounts to standing his ground in the most valuable area of the rink. Heavy and stubborn. Long and disruptive:
Samberg’s no-frills tactics seem to fluster the league’s current forwards. They’re accustomed to quieter duels. Spacing. Stick position. Not mano-a-mano clashes.
If you’re hugging the crease for a tap-in, he’ll squeeze you against the post to squeeze the passing window shut. If you attempt to slice into the slot in search of a rebound, he’ll stare you straight in the chest and muscle you off your route. At his size, he stops the vast majority of forwards dead in their tracks. Good luck earning inside leverage.
A pair of recent tilts vs. the Avalanche demonstrated his box-out ability:
Do some of these battles border on interference? Sure, but unless the acts are egregious, officials will adopt a “let ‘em play” philosophy to net-front defense. Locking horns is par for the course—especially in the postseason.
Samberg’s off-puck proficiency also translates to uptempo scenarios:
Here’s a 2-on-2 vs. the Bruins. Brad Marchand’s (BOS 63) drop pass to David Pastrnak (BOS 88) initiates a give-and-go look that requires him to slip through his defender’s grasp. Although the diminutive forward has done this at a high level throughout his career, Samberg doesn’t budge. He claims and maintains Marchand’s desired path (i.e. the shortest one between him and the crease), driving the winger to the outside and therefore derailing the offense’s timing.
In a game of inches, that half-beat can make all the difference. Opponents are routinely thrown off schedule when he’s on the ice.
On the PK or when squads are trailing late in the contest, coverage extends beyond 1-on-1s and home plate fills up with bodies that the defense must account for. This is where his expert hedging surfaces again:
Nathan MacKinnon (COL 29) receives the puck and rolls in off the right wall. Mark Scheifele (WPG 55) engages the superstar center, leaving a brief 3-on-2 behind him. Rather than parking squarely behind Artturi Lehkonen (COL 62) or pressing higher to jump the royal-road pass, Samberg hides in the weeds—more or less shoulder to shoulder with Lehkonen—before lunging into the lane at the last second.
Lehkonen is blanketed, Josh Morrissey (WPG 44) is never exposed down low and the cross-seamer is neutralized. In what should have been a dicey predicament, Samberg’s distance management gives Colorado nothing at 6-on-5.
That sequence is a prime example of his range’s impact. Despite not moving much, he can silence multiple threats at once. Hell, on the PK, he frequently challenges puck-carriers on the wall and returns to the house in time to rattle the bumper.
Both in the NZ and DZ, it can feel as though he’s continually in your way:
Of course, it’s too early to elevate him to the top tier of shutdown defensemen (e.g. Gustav Forsling, Jaccob Slavin). He needs the white-knuckle reps first. A more extensive track record. Maybe a touch more polish and restraint.
Winnipeg must be thrilled with his growth anyway. He’s upgraded from the softest to the stiffest competition on the Jets’ blue line, and the team owns 61.5 percent of the goals scored during his shifts. He paces the back end in short-handed TOI. His reliability allows Pionk to embrace his aggro whims. With Josh Morrissey-Dylan DeMelo and Samberg-Pionk on the ice for two-thirds of the contest, head coach Scott Arniel doesn’t sweat the matchup game as much either:
The cherry atop the sundae is that he’s doing all this while delivering a hard-nosed edge that the top four was lacking. When opponents turn it up, he hunkers down and welcomes the slugfest. That trump card in tight could very well translate to the upper hand in a best-of-seven series.
Defensive D-men tend to travel down a longer developmental path, but only a select few rise to shutdown territory. Samberg, who learned the tricks of the trade in a sheltered environment before making a splash at age 26, is halfway there.
Postseason success for the 38-14-3 Jets could hinge upon that progress.
Nothing but bangers at this place, Vinh. I'm hoping this is the path Lian Bichsel takes, as I see a lot of similarities in their respective games.