Breakout Alert: Connor McMichael
A star-making turn out of left field
The 17-6-2 Washington Capitals are this season’s biggest surprise.
Months removed from the title of worst playoff team in the salary cap era, they’re sitting on the league’s single best goal differential through 25 games. A sudden shift from “bend, don’t break” to “bend, go for the jugular” has engineered this turnaround.
Connor McMichael has played a vital role in their counterattack and overall offensive explosion (1st in goals per game). Here’s how.
NZ Spacing
It wasn’t long ago that the 23-year-old center was bordering on expendable. Prior to 2024-25, he had paced for a meager 27 points per 82 games and his high-water mark was 33. As is sometimes the case with young forwards, swapping McMichael’s position—all things considered a minor change of scenery—has made a world of difference.
Now a full-time winger (he’d lined up there occasionally in the past), he’s unveiling more tricks than he had the chance to show as a pivot. Most notably, his newfound leeway has revealed a flair for stretching opposing defenses.
McMichael’s long speed (86th percentile) has never been in question, but his get-off is ordinary in comparison. No longer tasked with low-forward responsibilities in the DZ, he (WSH 24) can creep further up ice to enjoy free releases in transition and therefore sneak behind enemy lines:
While defense-stretching might seem as simple as flying the zone as soon and often as possible, doing so without weakening your team’s structure is a delicate balancing act. It requires savvy. An innate feel for the flow of the game.
This is where the 2019 first-rounder shines. He appears to anticipate each change of possession, discerning red from green lights in 50/50 tilts across the DZ. Consequently, he juggles his lighter defensive burden with a nose for carving out significant cushions before the chase begins in earnest. His hair-trigger reaction time doesn’t hurt either. The Caps have enjoyed plenty of counters on the strength of his quick thinking.
Moreover, McMichael doesn’t settle for mere verticality. He traces intelligent, angled routes that enable him to separate from defenders while maintaining his momentum. There’s a huge difference between a stationary poacher at the OZ blue line and a catch-and-run threat in open ice. Thanks to his instincts and aforementioned long speed, he can punish even the slightest hiccup.
He displayed his transitional menace vs. the Avs on Nov. 21:
Instead of immediately sprinting north-south on the breakout, McMichael lays off the gas to extend Trevor van Riemsdyk’s (WSH 57) passing window. With the puck headed in his direction, he then accelerates into the right dot lane. This not only preserves the tempo of Washington’s attack but also grants Pierre-Luc Dubois (WSH 80) the central runway he needs to figure out his path and clear any hint of resistance.
There isn’t a second wasted on waiting for the pieces to nestle into place. The Caps are able to capitalize on Colorado’s lapse in a heartbeat, converting a plain outlet pass into a 2-on-1.
Later in the game, it’s McMichael’s turn to benefit from his early-bird play recognition:
Dubois and Nathan MacKinnon (COL 29) are duking it out along the wall. Sensing a potential takeaway, McMichael gains ~10 feet on Jonathan Drouin (COL 27) with one push. Once the rush is confirmed and Josh Manson (COL 42) hones in on Tom Wilson (WSH 43), the far-side winger is off to the races.
McMichael and Drouin begin this sequence at roughly the same depth. Look where they end up. The former dusts the latter so comprehensively that Manson (who had already locked in his assignment) is the nearest Avalanche obstacle.
He’s always on his toes, chomping at the bit to launch a counter. It shouldn’t surprise anyone, then, that he leads his team and ranks second leaguewide in rush attempts per 60 minutes:
Washington has learned that he isn’t a safety net. He’s a zone-flying tip of the spear. Sliding him over to left wing has brought that dimension front and center.
Close-Range Offense
Much like Jake Guentzel, the fairly slight (6’0”, 180 lbs) winger is neither imposing nor explosive in tight quarters. McMichael skates himself open on the regular nonetheless.
His middling physical tools may actually benefit his incursions, as he can lurk in the tall grass, let the opposition lower its guard and then waltz into the picture once the table’s been set. He may not command the defense’s gaze at first blush, but his opportunistic spacing commands the puck from his teammates in prime real estate.
In addition to his off-puck movement, he’s announced himself as one of the more prolific close-range weapons in the NHL:
McMichael would lose the majority of his goalmouth duels if he tried to stand his ground. We’re not talking about a mountain of a man here. Rather, the same sense of timing that powers his NZ flurries manufactures gaps in the teeth of the defense. Deception is another key. He often plays possum until the very last moment, convincing defenders that he’s handcuffed before springing forward for a deflection or rebound.
He’s very intentional with his stick placement as well, flashing targets on the ice, in the air, with different grips, etc. depending on the scenario. Consequently, he’s registered a whole mess of high-danger chances in 2024-25:
The clip below demonstrates his net-front craftiness:
As the puck circulates to the point, McMichael accepts and even leans into Aaron Ekblad’s (FLA 5) tie-up. Pinning down the Panthers blueliner ensures that he can meet Matt Roy’s (WSH 3) shot on his terms and at just the right distance to trouble Florida’s netminder. In one fluid motion, he pushes off Ekblad and wriggles his stick loose for a redirection that rings off the pipe.
On the PP, he alternates between strong-side tips, bumper passes and weak-side scrambles. For the latter, he’ll start by hovering outside the hashes to avoid sounding the alarm and slither into the inside track once the action kicks off.
As you can see, the progression frequently goes Jakob Chychrun (WSH 6) up top —> John Carlson (WSH 74) on his off wing —> backdoor feed or pass off pad:
McMichael’s never so close that he’s smothered but never so far that he can’t reach the doorstep on time. He only shows his cards when it counts.
In the high slot, he boasts a well-tuned internal clock too. He understands whether or not he has room to fire away. If he can’t, he passes off knowing that the Caps will be in a plus situation as the defense flocks toward him:
Although McMichael uncovers a good location, Taylor Raddysh (WSH 16) is late to detect the window of opportunity. With Brayden Point (TB 21) in the vicinity and the weak-side winger (Conor Geekie, TB 14) probably sinking to assist, he bumps the puck back to the point. LD —> RD —> near-miss on a deflection.
Since he’s shed the F3’s stay-above-the-puck duties, he can dedicate his OZ reps to cagey net-front tricks and under-the-radar slot spacing.
It’s bearing fruit:
McMichael has posted 14 goals and 10 assists in 25 contests. He’s tied for second leaguewide in 5-on-5 goals. Better yet for his long-term outlook, this spike in production appears at least somewhat sustainable because he’s emerged as a close-range fiend. He ranks ninth among forwards in HD chances and FIRST in expected goals.
Guentzel, Pavelski, maybe even a dash of Cammalleri. No matter how you slice it, he’s become a problem for the opposition below the dots.
In the process of revamping their offense, the Caps have also corrected the course of McMichael’s career. He fits seamlessly into their unforgiving, faster-paced attack and provides the kind of scoring depth that makes the playoff bubble seem…modest.
They could very well vie for the conference crown.