The 22-18-1 Nashville Predators probably don’t deserve their current wild-card spot. Consider the evidence:
Subpar 5-on-5 performance (24th in GF%)
An average power play (17th in PP%)
Disappointing showings by Juuse Saros between the pipes (27th in GSAA/60)
They’re winning by the skin of their teeth.
It’s a good thing, then, that they signed a free agent over the summer who’s built for white-knuckle hockey. A proper X-factor. Actually, just call him The Factor. Here’s how new Preds center Ryan O’Reilly has propelled his team into the thick of the playoff race.
Puck Pursuit
Despite his sterling defensive resume, Nashville isn’t deploying O’Reilly in a lockdown capacity. The former Selke Trophy winner’s linemates (Filip Forsberg and Gustav Nyquist) and favorable zone starts against tough competition suggest he’s a matchup center.
What’s the distinction? The Predators don’t care whether their top line silences or trades blows with the league’s scariest threats—so long as it emerges victorious.
As you might expect, claiming the lion’s share of possession helps in this regard, pinning teams on their heels and protecting a blue line that hasn’t jelled yet. O’Reilly is the man for the job. At 32 years old, he remains a workhorse in the trenches. Watch him (NSH 90) overwhelm opponents in one-on-one battles:
While he isn’t especially physical, ROR ranks among the best in the business at winning contested pucks. That’s due to his smarts and relentlessness.
The veteran pivot demonstrates a keen understanding of leverage, nearly always planting his shoulder inside his counterpart’s to obtain the straightest path to possession. When he can’t, he’s reading, adjusting and pestering opponents at a breakneck tempo, attacking from both sides with a fast-twitch stick and well-tuned nose for the puck. Once he snatches it, he wields his broad upper body to fence off just enough space to spot an outlet.
The control with which O’Reilly handles below-the-dots chaos is reminiscent of a fighter sinking in underhooks along the cage. Amid the clash of twigs and bodies, he manipulates frames in order to get where/what he wants.
His impact isn’t limited to 50/50 duels either. He’ll occasionally just rip the puck from an opponent’s grasp. Such abrupt changes of possession can snowball into scoring chances in a hurry:
On this sequence, his busy stick knocks down a routine Mikael Backlund (CGY 11) pass. He follows up with classic ROR, getting low and muscling his right shoulder into the puck line to secure the biscuit. As a bonus, his box-out sends Calgary’s captain flying in the other direction. Those efforts ultimately grant the Preds a clean retrieval and free bid on goal out of nowhere.
What appears to be sheer hustle is guided by the decade-plus he’s spent honing his craft. His opponents are thus outgunned in work rate, technique and experience before each engagement begins.
Is it any surprise that O’Reilly paces his club in takeaways?
That knack for extending the offense and occasionally creating something out of nothing has also allowed Nashville’s top line to fare quite well in difficult minutes:
It’s particularly valuable next to talented running mates. Thanks to their center’s diligence around the puck, Forsberg (45 points in 41 games) and Nyquist (33 points in 41 games) are enjoying ample opportunities to make a difference. Better yet, they’ve been inspired to join in on the fun and are competing for the puck with greater ferocity than ever.
In essence, the Predators’ deadliest weapons are playing like…predators.
Close-Range Offense
Nashville’s top-six centers have historically rested on the passive side of the offensive scale. Mikael Granlund and Ryan Johansen are gifted playmakers, but they had become so predictable and reluctant to grab the reins that defenses could put the clamps on Forsberg in the clutch.
That’s no longer the case.
O’Reilly doesn’t merely drive by the net. He bites down on his mouthpiece and wreaks havoc in the jaws of the defense. His shot chart reveals how active and productive he’s been in the high-danger areas:
Although some of his board-play habits translate to his net-front offense, he adopts a more patient approach. Rather than rushing to the crease as soon as possible, he consistently arrives right on time for his teammates. Moreover, he doesn’t reveal his plans until the very last moment, stacking the odds and forcing defenders to react in a split second.
When the puck enters his domain, he’s suddenly lightning-quick, wrestling the dominant position away before you know what hit you:
After signing O’Reilly in July, GM Barry Trotz touched on why the center is such a handful in the trenches: “When there's a race for the puck, he's quick. You'll see that he finds the puck. He finds ways. You play fast with your mind, not necessarily with your legs.”
Over and over again, O’Reilly takes efficient routes that drop him onto your goaltender’s doorstep precisely as Nashville comes knocking. Then he kicks the action into overdrive. It’s all about synchronicity. Spacing. Affording chances the runway they need to breathe and burgeon.
Of course, this style depends on linemates who can slow-play defenses too. Otherwise, you’ll be wondering why he’s out for a morning skate. Thankfully for the Predators, Forsberg and Nyquist fit the bill as crafty puck-carriers who can buy him an additional beat or two. He can therefore ramp up his velocity at the point of attack and lay siege to the slot.
Here’s the result:
Facing Seth Jarvis (CAR 24) in coverage, he could immediately bolt to the far post, but that would offer the Hurricanes forward a chance to intervene. So O’Reilly relinquishes the inside track and drifts behind Jarvis to exploit his blind spot, only popping over his shoulder once Forsberg tosses the puck up for grabs.
He never stops grinding to gain an edge.
In addition, this clip displays his clever playmaking, as he shifts from invading the goalmouth to detecting a cross-ice seam. While it’s rarely fancy, O’Reilly’s passing is effective enough to give defenders pause in scramble situations.
With that said, it’s his tenacious net-front play that’s most benefited Nashville through the first half of the season:
O’Reilly has already registered 10 PP goals (tied for 3rd in the league) and 35 points in 41 games. More importantly, his blue-collar offense is a major reason why the Preds seem scrappier and more resilient in 2023-24.
They now have a leader to lean on in gut-check time.
Make no mistake: Nashville isn’t a sleeping giant or true title contender. It’s closer to a playoff berth than it should be, though.
O’Reilly has been instrumental to that surprising development. And that aspect isn’t surprising. If someone on the roster is going to keep the Predators’ postseason hopes alive, it makes perfect sense for it to be one of the NHL’s premier heart-and-soul players.