2023-24 Rookie Watch: Connor Bedard
The generational prospect's first pro season
After selecting a can’t-miss prospect first overall in the 2023 NHL draft, the Chicago Blackhawks aren’t faring any better than they did last season. Their points percentage has actually plummeted to even crummier depths (from .360 to .326) through 72 games.
In spite of another dismal year, the excitement in the United Center is palpable. It feels as though the Windy City is buzzing about its hockey team again. That’s all on Connor Bedard.
Here’s why the rookie has the lottery-bound Blackhawks grinning from ear to ear.
NZ Spacing
Since former #1 pick Taylor Hall suffered a season-ending injury in November, Bedard has effectively been stranded on an island. His main linemates have been Philipp Kurashev (a speedy middle-six forward) and Nick Foligno (a glue guy). The back end can neither defend nor move the puck. Luke Richardson remains unproven as a head coach.
There’s just…not a whole lot for the young center to work with—and he doesn’t possess the type of blinding speed that can flatten any obstacles in his way:
He’s made do nevertheless.
The key has been taking smart off-puck routes to get his touches with a tailwind. Although his north-south wheels are nothing special, his short-area elusiveness enables him to slip into pockets of space.
Bedard navigates the NZ with a veteran savvy, recognizing which lane to claim, when to turn it up the ice, when to hang back in order to prolong a passing window’s lifespan, etc. Processing traffic as the opposition’s focal point is no easy task, yet it seems to come naturally to the freshman (CHI 98):
If you couldn’t tell from the film, he isn’t a defense-stretching deep threat (e.g. William Nylander) or a me-against-the-world bowling ball (e.g. Nathan MacKinnon). Instead, at 18 years old, he’s displaying a right-place, right-time opportunism in the thick of the action.
Much like a cagey wide receiver can find the sweet spot in zone coverage, Bedard simplifies life for his D-men by presenting them with obvious, uncontested lanes through which to advance the puck. Both his and their breakout loads are thus very manageable. Seth Jones, Nikita Zaitsev, Alex Vlasic and Kevin Korchinski don’t need to summon their inner Quinn Hughes, whereas he isn’t asked to weave through five defenders on his own.
Once the puck arrives, he leverages a stick that’s quite long for his 5’10” frame. This grants him surprising resiliency and lateral maneuverability under pressure.
Bedard’s spacing doesn’t strictly point him downhill either. It guides the entire five-man unit because he’s a willing distributor who understands the value of speed differentials on entry. From the moment he gets his hands on the puck, the Blackhawks’ outlook improves:
As Jones (CHI 4) intercepts a pass in the DZ, Bedard carves out a corridor 5-6 feet off the wall to invite a clean connection to his backhand. He pushes the play as far as his legs will carry him, but once he realizes that Sebastian Aho’s (CAR 20) pursuit angle has him cornered, he pulls up, identifies the trailer and Chicago can access the OZ with a healthy cushion.
When his teammates join him in choosing the optimal path, his transition play generates scoring chances as well:
Against the Coyotes, he crosses with Kurashev (CHI 23) early to outnumber Arizona’s left side and receive a potential dish on his forehand. That advantage attracts Liam O’Brien (ARI 38) to the party, which clears the runway for Foligno (CHI 17) to attack with momentum behind him and a massive gap in front of him.
This craftiness has translated to team-leading play-driving metrics at 5-on-5. The Blackhawks never register more expected goals than during their rookie’s TOI, and it’s not particularly close:
Considering the attention he receives from opponents and the fact that Chicago is otherwise floundering, that’s a solid start. Pair him with a legit puck-moving defenseman, and it’s not difficult to envision a future in which Bedard tilts the ice on the majority of his shifts.
Dual Threat
While Bedard was billed as a generational scorer, he’s shown an eagerness to create chances for his teammates as well. Even with his modest supporting cast, he aims to manufacture the highest-quality shot available—regardless of who fires it.
He complements those playmaking tendencies with the finest puck skills on a rookie since Connor McDavid entered the league in 2015-16. His sauce is feathery. His touch on the backhand is effortless. Blind spinning passes are a breeze. Every setup is eminently catchable to boot. Perhaps due to his extensive shooting background, he knows where your wheelhouse is and how to send the puck over there on a platter.
Bedard may not be able to skate anywhere he pleases, but he can complete any pass in the book. Combine that with his marksmanship, and you have one hell of a dangerous weapon:
Prorated over a full season (he missed 14 games with a fractured jaw), he’s pacing for 30 goals. Not the earth-shattering stuff some were anticipating. However, we can’t ignore his ragtag linemates or the OZ habits that suggest he’s ripe for a breakthrough.
His spacing is indeed excellent. He’s quick to identify seams to sneak into and never strays too far from his shooting platform. As a result, he’s a bona fide mid-range monster (94th and 96th percentile in shots and goals from that distance, respectively). Moreover, he’s fond of the tight-angle high wrister that Johnny Gaudreau and Jack Hughes test goaltenders with near the goal line.
Bedard will pull the trigger from anywhere, and his mechanics are so studied that he can muster serious velocity from any location/scenario. Conversely, he’s aware of his shot’s gravity and often sells it to snake into superior real estate. This is a dance that opponents have struggled to nail down in 2023-24.
Oh, and there’s more grease in his arsenal than you might expect. He won’t hesitate to crash the net and grapple with bigger defenders in search of rebounds.
When you consider the total offensive package, he has the tools to become one:
Let’s begin with his scoring instincts. Foligno swivels to buy himself an extra beat, yet before Kurashev receives the first pass, Bedard is cocked and ready for the next one. Clapper, top shelf.
Then there’s the playmaking. While most would expect a sniper to uncork Kurashev’s royal-road setup, he detects a more tantalizing option lurking at the backdoor, one-touching a pass in the perfect spot for Tyler Johnson (CHI 90) to tuck it home. On his forehand, far enough above the goal line for a quick high-percentage finish. Kucherov-esque.
Finally, a bit of everything vs. the Jets. He cuts his route short to settle into a quiet area for a bid from the slot. He then beelines toward Winnipeg’s net to chase the bouncing puck, flicks a between-the-legs attempt on goal and continues to swarm the crease for a putback.
Movement, deception, creativity, hunger. He has them in spades.
There’s still room to grow, of course. Faceoffs are a glaring issue (38.8% win rate). A more varied breakaway repertoire would be nice too, as he leans heavily on the backhand-to-forehand snap. In addition, he could use a pinch more muscle and commitment to team structure. You can teach that, though. I mean, he’s already trimmed his time to attack in order to play faster against NHL defensemen.
It’s paid dividends. He leads his club in every offensive metric and has posted 56 points in 58 games, which blows the rest of the league’s rookie class out of the water. Reminder: He was sidelined for 20% of the year.
For some historical context, his per-game scoring ranks third among freshmen over the past 15 seasons:
Most of those names were older than he is right now—and they certainly had more help around them.
Until we see Bedard alongside a proper distributor, it’s tough to say if he’ll become the one-shot assassin he was touted as pre-draft. That label may be of little consequence anyway. Whether you prefer markers or apples, the kid oozes offense and has produced in a pretty terrible environment.
With stronger linemates and more experience under his belt, the sky’s the limit.
Long-term development is fraught with uncertainty. Coaching, offseason training, managerial decisions and team chemistry can significantly impact Bedard’s track to superstardom.
Based on his inaugural campaign, however, you have to like his odds.