2023-24 Breakout Alert: Nils Hoglander
2023-24 Breakout Alert: Nils Hoglander
Vancouver's fun-sized wrecking ball
If the Pacific Division-leading Vancouver Canucks were going to load up at the trade deadline, the cost of doing business would likely include 2019 second-round pick Nils Hoglander.
GM Patrik Allvin ultimately refused to ship out his countryman—and you can’t really fault his decision.
Although Hoglander’s breakout year (31 points in 67 games) has flown under the radar, he’s offering Vancouver the most dependable and impactful hockey of his career. A promotion to the top six has further brightened the prospects of a young forward who once sat on the outside looking in.
Here’s how Vancouver’s shortest player has learned to produce big results.
Puck Pursuit
In his first few seasons, Hoglander couldn’t provide enough substance to complement his fan-friendly, flash-in-the-pan offense. The occasional spark didn’t warrant steady minutes.
Therefore, he had to recalibrate his on-ice identity.
“The role I have now on the team is to be a fast player and hard to play against. If I bring that every day, it’s going to help the team. Accept the role and do what you have to do for the team,” he told reporters in November. “It's hard but if I’m really focused on it, I think I can do it.”
Focus has indeed fueled his turnaround. The 23-year-old has always played with tremendous pace, but in 2023-24, he’s developed a single-minded obsession with tormenting defensemen on the forecheck:
Hoglander doesn’t let his 5’9”, 185-pound frame hold him back in puck pursuit. The diminutive winger hustles like a madman, utilizing his wheels (top speed in the 77th percentile) and tenacity to frustrate opponents along the boards. He’ll gladly throw what little weight he has around in order to create turnovers or buy time for reinforcements to arrive.
When he can’t engage physically, he reads your body language and stymies outlet passes with his anticipation and active stick. In addition, he’s effective at identifying his teammates’ leverage in order to seal off any reverse action.
With that said, Hoglander is best deployed as a first-man-in type who thrives on tempo. Vancouver seems to realize this, often waiting for him to build a head of steam before dumping pucks in on his side of the rink. His pluck in such scenarios is phenomenal:
He can’t beat Moritz Seider (DET 53) to the spot here, and he certainly doesn’t pose a physical challenge to the 6’3”, 205-pound rearguard. He locks horns anyway to keep him busy. At the same time, he fires a one-handed stick check into the mix to muddy the German’s first touch.
In the ensuing scramble, Seider is so blinded by his duel that he delivers a sneaky shot to Hoglander’s face while his counterpart claims inside position. The Swede can thus support Elias Pettersson (VAN 40) and establish OZ possession.
This is a great example of his ability to work around his limitations. He didn’t stand a chance of toppling Seider 1-on-1, but forechecking isn’t a solo endeavor. Engaging in the battle itself—regardless of the individual outcome—delayed the Red Wings’ breakout, allowed the Canucks to gather numbers down low and helped them win the war (i.e. regain the puck).
Hoglander may rank third on the team in takeaways, but his voracious puck pursuit benefits his entire line:
At 5-on-5, he spends 42.9% of his shifts in the OZ. That’s not only a significant upgrade over last year’s performance, but it also outranks the vast majority of forwards in the league (86th percentile).
Suffice to say Hoglander’s doggedness has freed him from the doghouse.
Net-Front Offense
There’s no doubting the kid’s talent. There were, however, questions surrounding how consistently he could tap into it against NHL-caliber blueliners.
The fourth-year pro has bolstered his odds by strengthening his offense at the point of attack. A much larger portion of his OZ energy is now dedicated to crashing the goalmouth. The shot charts tell the story (via NHL EDGE):
As you might expect from a tireless and undersized forechecker, Hoglander is equally twitchy around the crease. He isn’t much of a screen threat, of course. His value lies in bending over backwards to find deflections, rebounds and high-danger shot opportunities. Rather than an immovable object, Hoglander moves endlessly. He’s a Super Ball who bounces off everything in sight and…right back into the slot.
For defenders, his persistence is maddening. They may feel as though they have bigger fish to fry (Pettersson these days), but Hoglander nips at them from puck drop until the final buzzer.
He isn’t a mere nuisance either. When he’s on the ice, opponents are frequently scraping rubber out of their net:
Zero in on Hoglander, and you’ll see a cagey forward who’s ever-prepared for his defender’s last gasp. He’s diligent about presenting his stick to Canucks D-men for redirections, and he constantly adjusts and re-adjusts his posture to ensure that he remains a viable target.
The team’s new blue-line duo of Quinn Hughes and Filip Hronek has shone a light on that aspect of his toolkit. Armed with a partner who can hang with his blend of vision and elusiveness, Vancouver’s captain has imposed his will on the opposition since the season opener. However, he’s a facilitator at heart (66 assists in 69 games). Hughes requires finishers for his passes and foot soldiers to attack the net.
Hoglander has embraced this role and proven a far more difficult mark than his vitals would suggest. He goes all out, all the time:
Off an OZ faceoff, he attempts to negotiate a path to a favorable position over each shoulder, but Alexandre Carrier (NSH 45) is sticky in the slot. Hoglander then decides to forget about craft and simply powers into the path of an incoming point shot. Maintaining a visual on the puck throughout, he tracks the bid and lowers his blade for a tip that tickles the twine.
Churning his feet in an area of the ice that usually conjures stalemates has paid off in spades:
He ranks fourth on the club in goals (20) and leads the Canucks in both expected and actual goals per 60 minutes. Moreover, he’s third leaguewide in goal-scoring rate at 5-on-5. That’s a quantum leap for a player who could barely crack the lineup not that long ago.
The reason Hoglander averages the third-shortest shifts among Canucks forwards is the same reason he’s won over the coaching staff. No one can play like that for 50+ seconds at a time. No one on the team competes harder.
By fully leaning into his motor, he’s become Vancouver’s little engine that could.